Fantasy Football: Value In Coaches Year 2

PLEASE GO TO THE EDITED VERSION "WHERE THE VALUE IS" FOR A READER-FRIENDLY VERSION OF THIS ARTICLE. SORRY!

    It’s Fantasy Time!No…put away the crusted sock and box of tissues…I mean Fantasy Football Time!!So with baseball, frankly, boring us let’s turn our dipsomaniacal deliberationsto where the old/married and young/dateless have been focusing their attentionscome many an August before…The Draft!!!

    Now I’ve often viewed coaching in the NFL like sex in the long-term relationship. People’sfirst encounter with it is often awkward and unsatisfying. The second timearound is more comfortable, even enjoyable. Until, down the road, just when youthink you’ve got the hang of it your partner’s pillow talk, as you slipseductively between the sheets, is something along the lines of “State yourbusiness” and she’ll only agree to make love if she can, say, combine it withlearning a trade or listening to Rosetta Stone tapes.

    In other words in the world of NFL Head Coaching quick build-ups and fast flame-outs areinevitable. Still if we can find that sweet spot when Head Coaches peak we couldbe on the right road to where that Holy Grail of Fantasy Value and breakout Sleeperscan be found.    And who better than the aptly named Jets owner Woody Johnson to toss out the first cheerleaders of the year...

    Of course not heeding one’s own advice is why divorce lawyers are in business. So when wejumped into our research we reflexively assumed that new Head Coaches providedthe best opportunity for offensive, and in turn Fantasy, improvement, but asthe chart below indicates the first time ain’t necessarily the best time:

COACHING CHANGESSINCE 2000 (80 Total*)

*Does not include Interim Coaches

**As compared to Year 1

    Less than half of new Head Coaches were able to improve their teams rank in points scored andsince more points on the real field generally translates to more Fantasy pointsfor that team’s players it was a crapshoot as to where the value could be foundin this group. To that end we broke it down further to look at what happenswhen coaches with Offensive backgrounds take over, but it only caused the firstyear IMPROVE number to creep up to exactly 50%.

    Second year Head Coaches did significantly better improving over their first year rank by 61.5%.Still that’s not enough to take coaching changes all that seriously since we’refar more often than not dealing with the worst/lowest scoring teams in theleague. They needed to move up in leaps (10 spots or more) to make adifference. In fact for most of these teams moving up a slot or two in therankings is like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie losing 10 pounds in thatit’s the proverbial “deck chair off the Queen Mary” in terms of significance.

    So was it worth our while to keep going…

    According to this no and like the amount of meat on a Subway sandwich that pissed me off. Itseemed like time that could’ve been better spent drinking until I realized theplace to look for value was not with the short-sighted Herm Edwards and DaveCampos of the world, but with men of real vision. Guys who aren’t afraid to cutveterans, start rookies and basically tear things down in order to build themback right. And therein lies the value as you can see in what I promise is thelast chart

More on the Broncos later until then Tebow-shmebow, I’ve always been a Champ Bailey fan…

OFFENSES THATDECLINED/NEUTRAL IN COACHES 1ST YEAR

     Ah, now those are numbers worth staying sober for. Over 90% of 2nd year Head Coaches who saw their offense lose ground in their first season bounced back with a scoring unit that improvedin their second year and more importantly close to 40% took major strides.Eschewing the numbers for logic this seems to make sound sense in that in the“Hurry Up And Deliver” environment of the NFL Head Coaches may be given a passtheir first year, but had better be turning things around come Year 2.Familiarity with schemes, a year of experience for the first Draft class,roster overhaul and increased expectations then often meet in that second yearto produce significant gains. But enough speculating let’s look at some recentteams that were in this situation and what Fantasy impact it had…

2011 Buffalo Bills: Chan Gailey’s about as colorful as a Goth Fashion Show, but he can coach someoffense. The Bills went from 28th to 14th in pointsscored in 2011, his 2nd year, with these results: Ryan FitzpatrickQB13 (A top tier QB in 1st Half, 2nd tier thereafter),Fred Jackson RB14 in only 9 games total, C.J. Spiller RB32 on only 147 touches,Stevie Johnson 1000yds./7 TDs, WR21.

2010 Detroit Lions: Jim Schwartz’ 2nd year is marred by QB injuries and yet:Stafford/Hill/Stanton combined QB7, Jahvid Best RB23 on 9 starts and 171carries, Calvin Johnson WR6 despite 1 missed game, Brandon Pettigrew TE12 upfrom TE25 in 2009.

2010 Denver Broncos: Josh McDaniels Part Deaux goes 4-12 and still: Kyle Orton QB16 in 13 games,Knowshon Moreno RB18 also in 13 games, BrandonLloyd WR1, and even the enigmatic Jabar Gaffney 65 receptions.

2010 New York Jets: Year 2 for Uncle Buck of the Toe Suck Rex Ryan: Mark Sanchez QB19 up from QB25in 2009, LaDanian Tomlinson RB 17, Santonio Holmes WR32 in only 12 games andDustin Keller TE9 up from TE20 a year earlier.

2010 St. Louis Rams: All players (save Steven Jackson) seemingly undraftable off a 1-15 campaign nonetheless: Sam Bradford QB20, Steven JacksonRB14, Danny Amendola/Daniel Fells Bye Week usable.

2010 Oakland Raiders: Tom Cable’s Fight Club Round 2: Jason Campbell QB 25 in 12 starts, combinedwith Bruce Gradkowski for QB17, Darren McFadden RB6 in 13 games, Zach Millercareer best TE10.

2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Raheem’s Dream Season: JoshFreeman QB7, LaGarrette Blount RB24 on only 7 starts, Mike Williams WR11,Kellen Winslow TE6.

Like Freeman/Williams in 2010,here’s another Buccaneer pair we’d like to draw to…

    In addition tospotting the breakouts of Brandon Lloyd, Josh Freeman, Mike Williams andBrandon Pettigrew this methodology was hip to such coming-of-Fantasy stories asPhilip Rivers (2008), Owen Daniels (2007), Adrian Peterson (2007-Rookie Season)and Greg Jennings  (2007).  Of course these are all happy coincidences ofwhat this theory is really all about-finding bargain depth to fill in for thoseinevitable injuries, bye weeks and to round out your WR3and Flex positions.

    So if you’rebuying what we’re selling here keep an eye on Dallas (15th in points), Denver (25th) and Tennessee(21st) to improve their scoring ranks and likely carry a fewplayers along to career Fantasy years. That doesn’t mean the likes of ChrisJohnson, Miles Austin, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning, DeMarco Murray and JasonWitten are going to go crashing down the board, but they may just well exceedtheir  ADPs (Average Draft Position)  so getting them, even at their expectedprice, could turn out to be a steal. And don’t forget to keep guys like JaredCook, Craig Stevens, Nate Washington, Jake Locker, Jacob Tamme, Kevin Ogletree,Lance Ball and Ronnie Hillman in mind in the waning rounds as potentially solidbackups and trade chips taken with picks that are often frivolously (and, ifyour like us, drunkenly) wasted.

Good Luck!

We’ll have more Fantasy stuff up in the coming days. Some innotes form, some in in-depth essay form, but hopefully all a tad askew fromwhat you get on the traditional sites because wild speculation and bad puns is what we’re all about. Until then, there’s this…